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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still