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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd